2024 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 18: Lions, Vikings to Battle for NFC’s Top Seed
For a few teams, this is the week that means everything.
In the NFC, the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions are playing the ultimate Game 272 at Ford Field. The winner will have home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. The loser? A fifth seed going on the road next weekend and beyond.
Elsewhere, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers clinched the NFC South after beating the New Orleans Saints. And in the AFC, the Denver Broncos must beat the Kansas City Chiefs to take the seventh and final seed. Finally, the Baltimore Ravens have a shot to win the AFC North for the second straight year, only needing to avoid a massive upset against the Cleveland Browns.
Below is everything you need to know about the ramifications of Week 18.
AFC: WHO’S IN
No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 15–1, first place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 1
Playoff probability: 100%
The Chiefs are locked into the No. 1 seed and are resting starters against the Broncos, who must win Sunday afternoon to clinch a playoff spot.
No. 2: Buffalo Bills
Record: 13–3, first place, AFC East
Remaining opponents over .500: 0
Playoff probability: 100%
Buffalo is locked into the second seed and will likely rest many stars Sunday afternoon at Gillette Stadium against the New England Patriots.
No. 3: Baltimore Ravens
Record: 12–5, first place, AFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 0
Playoff probability: 100%
Baltimore clinched the third seed after its 35–10 win over the Browns and will be at home in the wild-card round.
No. 4: Houston Texans
Record: 9–7, first place, AFC South
Remaining opponents over .500: 0
Playoff probability: 100%
The Texans are locked into the fourth seed. However, they might play most of their starters against the Tennessee Titans after being blown out on Christmas by the Ravens.
No. 5: Los Angeles Chargers
Record: 10–6, second place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 0
Playoff probability: 100%
With the Steelers losing on Saturday, the Chargers can move into the No. 5 seed and earn a date with the Texans should Los Angeles beat the Raiders on Sunday afternoon.
No. 6: Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 10–7, second place, AFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 0
Playoff probability: 100%
After their loss to the Bengals, the Steelers will become the third team to enter the playoffs on a four-game losing streak. Pittsburgh will have to wait for the outcome of Sunday’s games to determine whether it’s going on the road to play the Ravens or the Texans in the wild-card round.
No. 7: Denver Broncos
Record: 9–7, third place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 1
Playoff probability: 72%
For the Broncos, the situation is simple. If they can beat the Chiefs’ backups, they’ll be the No. 7 seed. If Denver loses, it’s out of the playoff picture unless both the Bengals and Miami Dolphins falter.
IN THE HUNT
Cincinnati Bengals (9–8): After beating the Steelers on Saturday night, Cincinnati needs the Dolphins and Broncos to lose their respective games to get the seventh seed.
Miami Dolphins (8–8): Miami can still make the playoffs, but it needs Tyler Huntley to lead the Dolphins to a win over the New York Jets, and then hope for Denver to lose at home against Kansas City.
NFC: WHO’S IN
No. 1: Detroit Lions
Record: 14–2, first place, NFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 1
Playoff probability: 100%
Detroit and Minnesota are going to lock in for an epic struggle on Sunday Night Football at Ford Field. The winner will be 15–2 and own home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The loser is the first 14-win team to not win its division, and thus a wild-card team.
No. 2: Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 13–3, first place, NFC East
Remaining opponents over .500: 0
Playoff probability: 100%
The Eagles have nothing to play for against the New York Giants. Philadelphia won the NFC East and is locked in as the second seed.
No. 3: Los Angeles Rams
Record: 10–6, first place, NFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 1
Playoff probability: 100%
Los Angeles has assured itself of the NFC West title, but could slide to the No. 4 seed if it loses to the Seattle Seahawks and the Buccaneers beat the Saints.
No. 4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 10–7, first place, NFC South
Remaining opponents over .500: 0
Playoff probability: 87%
Tampa Bay has won the NFC South once again, and will now face either the Washington Commanders, or the loser or Vikings-Lions. If the Rams win, the Buccaneers will get the latter draw. If the Rams lose, they get Washington.
No. 5: Minnesota Vikings
Record: 14–2, second place, NFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 1
Playoff probability: 100%
If the Vikings beat the Lions on the road, they’ll earn a season split with Detroit and, much more importantly, be the No. 1 seed in the NFC for the first time since 1998.
No. 6: Washington Commanders
Record: 12–5, second place, NFC East
Remaining opponents over .500: 0
Playoff probability: 100%
Washington clinched the sixth seed after beating the CeeDee Lamb-less Dallas Cowboys. The Commanders will either play the Buccaneers or Rams, depending on whether Los Angeles wins in the late window.
No. 7: Green Bay Packers
Record: 11–6, third place, NFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 0
Playoff probability: 100%
With the Packers losing to the Chicago Bears (quickly followed by Washington beating Dallas), Green Bay is the seventh seed for the second consecutive year and will visit the Eagles next weekend.
IN THE HUNT
Atlanta Falcons (8–8): The Falcons need to beat the Panthers on Sunday in the early window, and simultaneously hope the Buccaneers lose to the Saints.
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