Welcome to Week 18 of the 2025 NFL season. It’s the last game of the season for 18 teams that are not going to the playoffs. And it’s essentially the start of the playoffs for four teams that are in a win-or-go-home situation: Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Saturday and Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday will decide the final two playoff spots. Sort of…
In a bizarre twist, the Buccaneers can win Saturday and still be eliminated if the Atlanta Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints on Sunday — creating a three-way tie for first place that would give the Panthers the NFC South.
Aside from those two big games, there are only a few other games in which both teams are fully invested. That’s the trick when making picks against the spread in Week 18. And it’s why some spreads are very unusual. So here’s a look at the Week 18 slate, with an eye toward which teams are motivated and which teams might be resting starters. Here’s another look at the playoff scenarios, which will also give you an idea which teams are most motivated.
Panthers +3 at Buccaneers
It’s amazing that Tampa Bay has lost four in a row and seven of its last eight yet still has a chance to win the division. The Bucs have home-field advantage here, but the spread suggests these teams are otherwise dead even. One interesting consideration if you put any credence in Athlon Sports’ exclusive red zone plus/minus metric: While the Bucs sit at +3, the Panthers have the sixth-worst plus/minus at -57.
Panthers: Craig Ellenport, Doug Farrar, Andrew Perloff, Kyle Wood
Buccaneers: Luke Easterling
Seahawks -1.5 at 49ers
The winner gets a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the playoffs; the loser must win three straight road games to reach the Super Bowl. The 49ers won the first meeting with Seattle, but that was all the way back in Week 1. San Francisco remains one of the most injury-plagued teams in the league, but head coach Kyle Shanahan still has them in position to be the No. 1 seed. The key will be how their secondary handles Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who seems due for a monster game.
Seahawks: Farrar, Wood
49ers: Easterling, Ellenport, Perloff
Saints +3 at Falcons
It’s bizarre to think these are two of the hottest teams in the NFL right now. The Falcons get more attention because their three-game winning streak includes that impressive Monday night upset of the Los Angeles Rams. But the Saints have actually won four in a row and are getting great play from rookie QB Tyler Shough. The Falcons probably have the most motivation here: Aside from possibly eliminating the Bucs from playoff contention, Atlanta can end up tied for first place with a win.
Saints: Easterling, Farrar, Wood
Falcons: Ellenport, Perloff
Browns +7.5 at Bengals
This might be the most meaningful meaningless game on the schedule. Myles Garrett still needs a sack to break the single-season record; the Bengals have been out of the playoff picture for a while, but Joe Burrow refuses to take his foot off the gas pedal. For the record, Garrett had two sacks of Burrow in Week 1, but he’s only had half a sack over the last two weeks and sits at 22 for the season.
Browns: —
Bengals: Easterling, Ellenport, Farrar, Perloff, Wood
Cowboys -5.5 at Giants
The Cowboys are 4-1 against NFC East teams this season — and 3-7-1 against everyone else. Dallas won a 40-37 overtime thriller against the Giants in Week 2. Of course, Russell Wilson was at QB for New York back then. Can Jaxson Dart do the same?
Cowboys: Easterling, Ellenport, Perloff, Wood
Giants: Farrar
Packers +5.5 at Vikings
The Green Bay Packers are locked into the No. 7 seed in the playoffs, but they still have motivation here: The defense hasn’t played well since Micah Parsons was lost for the season, and the Packers have lost three in a row. It would be nice to rest their starters, but it’s hard to believe Matt LaFleur wants his team limping into the postseason with a four-game losing streak.
Packers: Easterling, Ellenport, Farrar
Vikings: Perloff, Wood
Colts +10.5 at Texans
Houston still has a shot at the AFC South title with a win here and a Jacksonville Jaguars loss. The most dominant defense in the NFL this season gets to tee off on rookie QB Riley Leonard.
Colts: Ellenport, Perloff, Wood
Texans: Easterling, Farrar
Titans +11.5 at Jaguars
The Titans have been competitive down the stretch and have won two of their last four games. Still, the Jaguars are red hot. They’ve won seven in a row. And not only will they clinch the AFC South with a win here, but they’d still have an outside shot at the AFC’s No. 1 seed (a long shot; they’d need the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots both to lose)
Titans: Farrar, Perloff, Wood
Jaguars: Easterling, Ellenport
Chiefs -5.5 at Raiders
It’s possible that the Raiders might be just as motivated to lose this game and lock up to No. 1 draft pick as the Chiefs will be to get a win in what likely the final game of Travis Kelce’s Hall of Fame career. And this is just speculation, but what if 67-year-old head coach Andy Reid tells his team before the game that he’s retiring? He’s already said he’ll be back, but you never know… Complete speculation, but just saying: If Reid told his team this is it, the Chiefs would win by 40.
Chiefs: Easterling, Ellenport, Farrar, Perloff, Wood
Raiders: —
Lions +2.5 at Bears
The Chicago Bears need a win here to lock up the No. 2 seed in the NFC and that’s pretty significant. If the Bears are the No. 2 seed, they’d host a fading Packers squad in the wild card. If Chicago loses and the Eagles win, the Bears would host the Rams next week. Safe to say they’d prefer Green Bay. The 8-8 Lions don’t have anything to play for, but you know Dan Campbell’s squad will be supremely motivated to knock off their rival and finish the season with a winning record.
Lions: Ellenport
Bears: Easterling, Farrar, Perloff, Wood
Chargers +11.5 at Broncos
The Broncos clinch the No. 1 seed and a bye if they win here. They lost to the Chargers back in Week 3, but the spread is so big here because L.A. has already announced they’re resting quarterback Justin Herbert.
Chargers: Easterling, Wood
Broncos: Ellenport, Farrar, Perloff
Dolphins +10.5 at Patriots
On paper, the Patriots still have a shot at the No. 1 seed — but they would need Chargers backup Trey Lance to knock off the Broncos. Head coach Mike Vrabel will likely have his team ready. Still, the Dolphins have won five of their last seven games and 10.5 points might be a lot here.
Dolphins: Ellenport
Patriots: Easterling, Farrar, Perloff, Wood
Commanders +7.5 at Eagles
As previously mentioned, the Eagles will be motivated because they’ve got an outside shot at the No. 2 seed and a much preferred wild-card matchup. The Commanders, meanwhile, have seemingly given up on the season. They’ve lost nine of their last 10, including an 11-point loss to these Eagles two weeks ago.
Commanders: Farrar
Eagles: Easterling, Ellenport, Perloff, Wood
Cardinals +7.5 at Rams
Motivation here for the Rams might depend on Saturday’s result. If the 49ers lose to the Seahawks, the Rams have a shot here at being the No. 5 seed, which would result in a wild-card game against the NFC South champ, presumably a good matchup for Matthew Stafford and company. If the 49ers win, Rams head coach Sean McVay might go less than 100mph here — though it’s also possible the Rams want to bounce back from a Monday night loss. And the Cardinals defense has been a sieve.
Cardinals: Perloff, Wood
Rams: Easterling, Ellenport, Farrar
Jets +7.5 at Bills
Bills quarterback Josh Allen is nursing an injured foot, but it doesn’t sound like a major concern. Still, you’ve got to believe the Bills will be careful here since this game doesn’t have much bearing on playoff seeding. But here’s the key: This is the final game for Highmark Stadium. The Bills get a new stadium next year, and you know Bills Mafia is looking for a celebration. Oh yeah, and the Jets have lost their last four games by an average of 27 points.
Jets: —
Bills: Easterling, Ellenport, Farrar, Perloff, Wood
Ravens -3.5 at Steelers
The Steelers hold a slight edge over the Ravens due to their Week 14 win at Baltimore, but they looked awful in last week’s loss to the Browns. Furthermore, the red zone plus/minus gives the Ravens a big edge: Baltimore has a plus/minus of +15, while the Steelers are at -27. Is this how Aaron Rodgers goes out?
Ravens: Easterling, Ellenport, Farrar
Steelers: Perloff, Wood
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