The first week of every NBA season is a perfect time to feast on overreactions and hyperbole. If there’s any more appropriate way to enjoy this annual tradition, please don’t tell me what it is. Tempered analysis will have its day, but after almost every team has played at least one game, here are some observations (big and small) that may or may not look ridiculous a couple of months from now.
1. Jayson Tatum will win MVP.
His season opener was one of the most dominant and efficient individual performances of his (or anyone’s) career: 37 points on 18 shots, 10 assists (plus three hockey assists), and only one turnover. He hit eight 3-pointers. His PER was 53.1 (lol). The Celtics’ offensive rating with him on the court was 172.9, and 93.8 in the 18 minutes he sat. That includes an entire fourth quarter of garbage time that saw Boston miss a million shots in a row as it tried to break the single-game 3-point record, but the defending champs reached another level of pure unstoppability during competitive portions of the game, with Tatum picking New York’s defense apart.
Jericho Sims and Karl-Anthony Towns were discombobulated guarding stack pick-and-rolls, burned repeatedly as they worried more about off-ball movement than Tatum’s “broken” jump shot.
Coming off a season when he finished sixth for this award—on a roster that occasionally made him a victim of his own team’s success—Tatum’s path to this year’s MVP is pretty simple. Boston runs away with the East and wins more games than every team in the West while its best player reaches new efficiency highs and typically superb counting stats. With Kristaps Porzingis hurt and a couple of aging veterans (Al Horford and Jrue Holiday) needing to be managed throughout the season, Tatum’s on-off splits could reflect his value, impact, and standing as a top-five player. Everything else is already there: elite defense, rebounding, steadily improving chops as a playmaker, and unbridled confidence as a world champion (which certainly won’t hurt how he’s perceived by skittish voters who factor postseason performance into a regular-season award).
In Tatum’s next two games, he scored 62 points and made 37.5 percent of his 3s. I don’t want to dive too deeply into advanced numbers through just a few games because it’s all unsustainable, but Tatum has looked extremely comfortable in isolation. His handle is tight, his decisions are crisp, and he’s exerting a combination of power and dexterity that’s pretty much impossible to guard one-on-one. The MVP felt like a long shot before this season started, but if Tatum is now a top-shelf shotmaker in addition to every other quality that already makes him so special—although his shotmaking was mostly absent Monday night against the Bucks—watch out.
2. Or maybe Anthony Davis might win it?!
Let me just say: I do not believe in this Lakers team, but I do believe in a healthy Anthony Davis. Through the first few games of this season, there might not have been a better two-way player on the planet. As of Monday, he led the league in scoring (33 points per game) to go along with 12 boards, 2.5 blocks, and a much larger role in Los Angeles’s offense. His time of possession is up, and his free throw rate is twice what it was a year ago.
It’s not like AD is suddenly jacking up a bunch of 3s or making a bunch of long 2s, either. Through three games, he was 20-for-25 in the restricted area and 4-for-8 outside the paint. According to Sportradar, Davis is finishing 7.3 plays per game with a drive, which is way up from last season’s 4.1. When he’s aggressive, he’s a problem. When he’s aggressive and observant, he’s unstoppable. Watch how he times things out in this early sequence against the Kings: Davis waits for Austin Reaves to cut through the paint and drag a help defender with him before going at Domantas Sabonis. It’s a subtle necessity.
Being in lineups that offer a little bit more spacing helps (i.e., expect Dalton Knecht’s minutes to rise as the season moves along). Davis has more room diving through the paint and more resources when he’s operating out of a short roll. He’s obliterating switches and dominant on the offensive glass. All of it’s been critical with LeBron James quietly starting to show his age. If L.A. finishes with a top-four seed in the Western Conference and Davis keeps his award eligibility by passing the 65-game threshold, an actual MVP is in play.
It’s unlikely that the Lakers will fade with Davis playing at this level, but if they do, in some kind of dramatically hopeless fashion, then [whispers] it could make sense for them to shop him and strap jumper cables to a situation that (in this hypothetical!) would otherwise be going nowhere. But back in reality, Davis looks incredible and firmly resembles the terrorizing big man who helped carry L.A. to its bubble title. It’s that exact version (and more) the Lakers need if they want to exceed their modest expectations this season.
3. Dyson Daniels will make an All-Defensive Team.
I don’t know what the record for deflections in a season is, but Daniels must be on track to break it. He has 28 in 130 minutes, which is 12 more than any other player. Ten of them came in Atlanta’s season opener. Sometimes this type of determination can be fool’s gold, the sign of someone who gambles too much for the greater good. Daniels is sometimes guilty of that. But the pros outweigh the cons for someone who never gives up on a play and is tasked with defending the other team’s top perimeter scorer every night (from LaMelo Ball to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander).
I’ve watched this play several times and still can’t comprehend how Daniels changes direction when Tre Mann rejects the screen. The only explanation is witchcraft:
For the first time in several years, I was kinda down on the Hawks heading into this season. I’ve touched that stove too many times. But actually seeing their revamped wing rotation—Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson, and (until further notice) De’Andre Hunter—in action, in all the ways they complement Trae Young, has already pulled me back in. There’s real upside, athleticism, length, and defensive tenacity. And, with all respect to Dejounte Murray, Daniels has the potential, by himself, to make Atlanta’s offseason trade with the Pelicans feel lopsided.
4. Anthony Edwards has abandoned the midrange.
In the Wolves’ season opener, Edwards launched 13 shots from above the break and only five shots from midrange. This was no aberration. A couple of days later, he took 15 3s and just two midrange jumpers. Two nights after that, he took 12 more 3s (one was a heave) and, again, only two long 2s. To put this in perspective, not only does he lead the league in 3-point attempts, but his per-game average is double what it was last season.
Last week, I predicted that Edwards would win MVP; a huge part of my case was his long runway for improvement relative to every other conceivable candidate. Now we’re seeing it, as he rearranges his shot diet with a tighter embrace of the 3-point line and near total abandonment of the midrange.
But, unfortunately, while Edwards has cut back on the sport’s least efficient shot, the league’s most dynamic athlete is also barely getting to the rim. (Only 18 percent of his shots have come at the basket so far, and a career-low 55 percent have gone in.) Threes are awesome, and it’s somewhat understandable for Edwards to want to conserve energy and protect his body. But, like, come on. At least some part of a number that low must be systemic. Sure enough, when you watch the new-look Timberwolves, it’s impossible to ignore the blatant spacing issues that emerge when Julius Randle is on the court.
It’ll be interesting to see how much of this evolution is real, for better and for worse, as the season goes along and Edwards finds his way with Randle in and Towns (an all-time great spacing big) now in New York. The Timberwolves won’t have the offense they want until their best player can put consistent pressure on the basket.
5. The Clippers are not bad!
Here’s the recipe: Three-fourths cup of vintage James Harden + a pack of persistent defenders + a generous spoonful of tactical brilliance = a competitive basketball team!
To set the table, Kawhi Leonard is hurt again, and Paul George is gone. In that vacuum of shots, touches, and minutes is an opportunity that (so far) has been grasped by pretty much everyone on the roster.
Norm Powell is a human torch. Ivica Zubac has established himself as a very early front-runner to win Most Improved Player by somehow averaging 23 points, 14 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game. Kris Dunn is omnipresent. Jeff Van Gundy is now on Ty Lue’s staff and making a difference. Watch JVG see right through Golden State’s sideline out of bounds play and instruct the Clippers to keep an eye on Buddy Hield. (Dunn switches onto Hield and then blows up the play by top locking him, forcing a backdoor cut into help.)
And then there’s Harden: 25 points, 11.7 assists, 8.3 rebounds, and, of most importance, a renewed ability to consistently beat his man off the dribble. According to Sportradar, the Clippers are touching the paint on a league-high 67.6 percent of their possessions. Harden is the reason. He hasn’t been hitting shots, but he’s also not settling: His free throw rate is well above his career average. That’s encouraging news. Sometimes you need to judge how good a player is by how the opposing coach is treating him. On Sunday, Steve Kerr had the Warriors doubling Harden 40 feet from the rim to squeeze the ball from his hands. They also zoned up on the strong side to take away his drives. It was a flashback to 2018, when Harden’s game felt revolutionary in the way it forced defensive schemes to either invent something new or fall back on a last resort. If he still demands that type of respect in January, it’ll be a tremendous sign for a team that needs to squeeze every ounce of juice its point guard has to offer.
The margins here are small. The Clippers do not have a bunch of 3-point shooters and can’t afford to lose the possession game. But they do have depth and versatility. There’s genuine creativity, motion, and effort, too. They crash the glass. They help the helper. They care about stops and have embraced that side of the ball as an identity they can’t afford to waver on. We’ll see how much longer all this lasts. But, while recalibrating expectations around Kawhi’s chronic unavailability, the Clippers may have enough to win more games than a lot of people think.
6. The Bucks have solved nothing.
Yes, Khris Middleton is injured. Yes, Damian Lillard might have the pep in his step that was often missing last season. Yes, Giannis Antetokounmpo is already dunking on people with unparalleled and unstoppable physical prowess. But the Bucks still looked very bleh and have already endured alarming losses to the Bulls and Nets. A lot of it can be chalked up to the same issues that were a dark cloud last season, too.
To start, their perimeter defense remains abysmal. One game after they saw Coby White and Zach LaVine combine for 60 points, Cam Thomas and Dennis Schröder dropped 61. (They somehow made Thomas look like Steve Nash.) Milwaukee did its best this offseason to add capable winning veterans on minimum deals, but none are defensive stoppers. Lillard did not get 3 inches taller over the summer. Gary Trent Jr. tries, but he’s no Jrue Holiday.
What’s even more egregious is the lacking two-man game with Lillard and Antetokounmpo. Time will tell how this rotation shakes out once Middleton is back in the mix, but for now Doc Rivers is staggering his two best players. Quick question: Why isn’t the Bucks’ priority to cultivate as much chemistry between these two complementary stars as they possibly can? According to Sportradar, before Monday night’s game against the Celtics, Lillard had ended as many plays running a pick-and-roll with Bobby Portis as he had with Giannis. Sportradar has also yet to log a single pick-and-roll with Lillard setting a ball screen for his two-time MVP teammate. Why?
Rivers is trying other stuff, and some of it makes sense, moving Antetokounmpo around the court, letting him attack in different spots with room to operate. But some of it is comfort food packed with saturated fat, like whenever Giannis starts a possession by running to the left block before catching an entry pass and either attacking the basket in isolation or shooting a jumper sans any ball movement. (He should be fined $500 every time he takes a pull-up 3.)
It’s early and way too soon to actually overreact—Lillard and Giannis ramped up their on-court relationship in Monday night’s loss—but watching this team resort to some of the avoidable sludge that helped do them in a year ago, it’s hard not to.
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