Saturday’s news that Roki Sasaki would be posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines sent shockwaves — and excitement — throughout Major League Baseball, as clubs began to think about their prospects of landing the 23-year-old right-hander.
But unlike last year’s free-agent sweepstakes that saw Yoshinobu Yamamoto sign for $325 million with the Dodgers, the race for Sasaki will not end with a nine-figure contract, which makes for a fascinating Hot Stove storyline.
“This isn’t a Yamamoto situation,” one American League executive said. “Money isn’t going to be the primary issue when he chooses a team.”
hat’s because players younger than 25 years old who have not reached six years of service in a foreign major league are subject to MLB’s international amateur signing bonus pool rules, setting a cap on their contracts.
Shohei Ohtani faced a similar situation in 2017, signing with the Angels for $2.315 million. Sasaki would be under club control through the 2030 season if he never spends a day in the Minors.
Sasaki, who has a 2.02 ERA over his first four seasons in Japan, immediately becomes one of the top free agents available this winter, though unlike Juan Soto, whose expected contract ask will likely limit his market to a handful of clubs, Sasaki’s international amateur status potentially puts nearly every team in play.
- Where does Sasaki rank among top free agents?
“Teams are going to have to sell themselves, not just write the biggest check,” an AL executive said. “It still may not be a level playing field because every team won’t have what he’s looking for, but the size of your payroll isn’t necessarily as important.”
It is still unclear when Sasaki will be posted, which would start the 45-day clock on his window to sign with a Major League club, though it typically takes a few weeks to complete the process. The international signing period runs from Jan. 15 through Dec. 15 each year, so if Sasaki is posted in December, he could sign on or after Jan. 15, when all clubs will have their full complement of dollars in their respective international bonus pools. Many clubs already have handshake agreements with international prospects for 2025, but the chance to obtain a pitcher like Sasaki could prompt them to back out of those deals.
While every team in the Majors would love to add Sasaki to its rotation, executives believe the Dodgers and Padres are the favorites to land him.
“It’s not quite a two-horse race,” a National League executive said. “But those two are probably the most logical landing spots.”
Los Angeles signed both Ohtani and Yamamoto last winter, instantly becoming the most popular team in Japan. But Sasaki forged a close relationship with Padres pitcher Yu Darvish at the last World Baseball Classic, which could give San Diego an edge in its recruiting pitch.
One source said the teams most likely to have a shot at Sasaki are West Coast clubs and those that have signed Japanese players in the past. Aside from the Dodgers and Padres, the Giants, Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Cubs and Rangers were among those mentioned by executives.
The Mets, Yankees and Cubs are among the teams that have done extensive scouting on Sasaki, who drew dozens of scouts to his starts throughout the season. One AL executive who believes the Dodgers and Padres are the co-favorites to land Sasaki said the Mets may not be far behind.
“Of the East Coast teams, I think the Mets have the best shot,” the executive said.
Sasaki’s high-90s fastball and tantalizing slider have big league teams dreaming on his potential as a No. 1 starter, though one executive noted that his lack of innings — he has topped the 100-inning mark only twice in his four seasons with Chiba Lotte, recording a career-high 129 1/3 innings in 2022 — will be something to consider when he arrives in the Majors next season. He threw only 111 innings over 18 starts in 2024, missing time with arm and oblique injuries.
“He’s going to be very tough on big league hitters,” the NL exec said. “But whoever signs him shouldn’t count on a workhorse who is going to throw 200 innings out of the gate.”
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