The final week of the NFL regular season is always tricky when it comes to setting the spreads. It’s one thing to set the lines for the two games this week that will decide division titles — Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers. But there are several games this week for which motivation is a mystery.
Not to mention the fact that some very sketchy quarterbacks will be starting. Trey Lance for the Los Angeles Chargers? Riley Leonard for the Indianapolis Colts? Clayton Tune for the Green Bay Packers? Yikes.
Players want to win, so it’s not simply a matter of saying some teams have nothing to play for this week. Sure, teams that are out of playoff contention and playoff teams that are locked into seeding might be resting starters and giving backups a chance to play. If the Colts or Chargers had something to play for, there’s no way they’d be double-digit underdogs. If the Buffalo Bills had something to play for, there’s no way they’d be favored by less than 10 points against the lowly New York Jets.
That Jets-Bills line is enticing. The line is 7.5 points, partly because the Bills don’t have much to play for and partly because quarterback Josh Allen is nursing a foot injury and probably won’t play. But keep in mind that this is the final game for Highmark Stadium — Buffalo gets a new stadium next season and Bills Mafia will be in full throat Sunday expecting a beat-down against the 3-13 Jets. Whether he starts or just comes in to give Allen a rest, Mitchell Trubisky could one of Week 18’s most productive quarterbacks.
SEE ALSO: Against the spread picks for every Week 18 game
Check out the best bets this week from Athlon Sports’ NFL staff:
Week 18 Best Bets
Luke Easterling’s best NFL picks for Week 18
(Season: 26-25)
Patriots -10.5 over Dolphins
Cowboys -5.5 over Giants
Texans -10.5 over Colts
Craig Ellenport’s best NFL picks for Week 18
(Season: 29-22)
Rams -7.5 over Cardinals
Bills -7.5 over Jets
Chiefs -5.5 over Raiders
Doug Farrar’s best NFL picks for Week 18
(Season: 20-31)
Panthers +3 over Buccaneers
Bengals -7.5 over Browns
Patriots -10.5 over Dolphins
Andrew Perloff’s best NFL picks for Week 18
(Season: 23-27-1)
Vikings -5.5 over Packers
Chiefs -5.5 over Raiders
Bills -7.5 over Jets
Kyle Wood’s best NFL picks for Week 18
(Season: 24-26-1)
Bears -2.5 over Lions
Eagles -7.5 over Commanders
Bills -7.5 over Jets
Week 18 Saturday/Sunday slate
Panthers +3 at Buccaneers
Seahawks -1.5 at 49ers
Saints +3 at Falcons
Browns +7.5 at Bengals
Cowboys -5.5 at Giants
Packers +5.5 at Vikings
Colts +10.5 at Texans
Titans +11.5 at Jaguars
Chiefs -5.5 at Raiders
Lions +2.5 at Bears
Chargers +11.5 at Broncos
Dolphins +10.5 at Patriots
Commanders +7.5 at Eagles
Cardinals +7.5 at Rams
Jets +7.5 at Bills
Ravens -3.5 at Steelers
Week 18 NFL Picks: Expert Picks Against the Spread for Every Game
Determining which teams are still motivated to win is the key to making the right bets.
Craig Ellenport
NFL Playoff Scenarios Going Into Week 18
Two more playoff berths and both No. 1 seeds are still up for grabs in the final weekend of the regular season.
Craig Ellenport
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