Bill Oram’s Big 10*: Asking an uncomfortable, unsolvable question. Should Ohio State be…….Read more

*As you’re about to see, numbers have never really been my thing. But if the Big Ten Conference can have 18 teams, this recurring list of numbered thoughts can go as high as I’d like.

1. This is where I will get accused of stirring the pot exclusively for the sake of being disagreeable. Of playing for

clicks, in the Dan Lanning vernacular.

Bill Oram’s Big 10: Asking an Uncomfortable, Unsolvable Question — Should Ohio State Be No. 1 Over Oregon?

Every college football season is a living, breathing paradox. It offers thrilling certainties—fierce rivalries, stunning upsets, and unforgettable moments—but it thrives on chaos and endless debate. Enter Bill Oram’s Big 10: an arena where pressing questions of the college football world meet thoughtful scrutiny. Today, the spotlight falls on a tantalizing and contentious question: Should Ohio State be ranked No. 1 over Oregon?

It’s an uncomfortable debate, rife with subjective reasoning, data points that lead to dead ends, and biases we barely recognize in ourselves. And yet, as we march toward the College Football Playoff (CFP) selection, it’s a question we cannot ignore. Let’s dive into the metrics, narratives, and emotional weight behind this debate.

1. The Case for Ohio State

Ohio State, led by head coach Ryan Day, has arguably the strongest résumé in the country. The Buckeyes boast a perfect record (11-0) with marquee wins that include triumphs over then-No. 9 Notre Dame, No. 7 Penn State, and No. 11 Michigan. In an era when strength of schedule carries enormous weight, Ohio State’s portfolio sparkles.

Strength of Record (SOR)

The SOR metric, a critical tool for CFP deliberations, measures how difficult it is for a team to achieve its win-loss record against its schedule. Ohio State is No. 1 in SOR, edging out Georgia and Oregon. This speaks to the gauntlet Ohio State has faced in the Big Ten East, the toughest division in college football this year. Add in their non-conference victory at Notre Dame, and Ohio State’s season has the makings of a masterpiece.

Defensive Dominance

Ohio State’s defense has been nothing short of elite. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has transformed this unit, which currently ranks No. 2 nationally in points allowed per game (9.3) and No. 3 in yards per play (4.15). The Buckeyes have shut down explosive offenses and forced turnovers at key moments, notably in their defensive clinic against Penn State.

Star Power

The Buckeyes’ roster features stars like wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., a Heisman contender whose athleticism and reliability have carried Ohio State in crucial games. Complemented by quarterback Kyle McCord’s steady (if not spectacular) play, the Buckeyes have consistently found ways to win against top competition.

2. The Case for Oregon

On the other side of the debate stands Oregon, the powerhouse from the Pac-12. The Ducks, under second-year coach Dan Lanning, have emerged as one of the most complete teams in college football. Their dominance and efficiency are striking, and they’ve been steadily climbing the CFP rankings.

Dominance in Wins

Unlike Ohio State’s grind-it-out victories, Oregon’s wins have been emphatic. The Ducks’ average margin of victory this season is a staggering 27.4 points per game, the best in the nation. Oregon has passed the eye test in every sense, dismantling opponents with ruthless efficiency.

Offensive Prowess

Oregon’s offense, led by sixth-year quarterback Bo Nix, is the most efficient in the country. Nix has thrown for 35 touchdowns against just two interceptions while completing an absurd 78.1% of his passes. Supported by a formidable offensive line, Oregon ranks No. 2 in scoring offense (45.2 points per game) and No. 3 in total offense (523.7 yards per game).

Rematch Narrative

Oregon’s sole blemish came against Washington, a 36-33 loss in Seattle. However, that game was a nail-biter that could have gone either way, and Oregon has since rebounded with even greater intensity. A potential rematch in the Pac-12 Championship looms large, with the Ducks heavily favored to avenge their lone defeat.

3. Comparing Résumés: A Delicate Balancing Act

The CFP committee often emphasizes three pillars: strength of schedule, game control, and head-to-head matchups. In comparing Ohio State and Oregon, these criteria lead to fascinating contradictions.

Strength of Schedule

Ohio State holds the edge here, thanks to its battles in the Big Ten East and its victory at Notre Dame. Oregon’s schedule, while solid, lacks the same density of top-tier opponents. Wins against Utah and USC are impressive but don’t carry the same weight as Ohio State’s triumphs over Michigan and Penn State.

Game Control

This is where Oregon shines. The Ducks have rarely been challenged, dominating opponents from start to finish. Ohio State, by contrast, has had to claw its way to several victories. For instance, the narrow escape at Notre Dame (17-14) and a close contest against Maryland (37-17) showcased the Buckeyes’ grit but left doubts about their offensive ceiling.

Head-to-Head and Common Opponents

While Ohio State and Oregon haven’t faced each other this season, Oregon’s lone loss to Washington complicates matters. The Huskies are unbeaten, and a victory over them in the Pac-12 title game would bolster Oregon’s case. Still, Ohio State’s unblemished record is a trump card in the absence of a direct comparison.

4. The Eye Test: A Subjective Battle

Every college football fan knows the importance of the “eye test,” that intangible sense of which team looks like the best in the country. For many, Oregon’s style of play—fast, physical, and explosive—makes them the most impressive team in college football. Ohio State, while effective, doesn’t exude the same dominance. Their offense has been inconsistent, relying heavily on Harrison Jr. and the defense to carry them.

But the eye test cuts both ways. Ohio State has consistently performed in high-pressure situations against elite teams. Oregon, despite its overwhelming victories, has yet to notch the same kind of high-stakes, season-defining win that Ohio State has against Michigan or Notre Dame.

5. The Historical Context: A Program’s Prestige

One cannot ignore the role of history and perception in CFP debates. Ohio State is a perennial contender with a rich history of success. The Buckeyes have appeared in five CFPs, winning the inaugural championship in 2014. Their brand carries immense weight, and the committee knows they are built for the big stage.

Oregon, despite its recent surge, doesn’t have the same pedigree. The Ducks are chasing their first national title and have only one CFP appearance (2014). Fair or not, this historical context often influences how teams are ranked.

6. The CFP’s Dilemma: Choosing the “Right” No. 1

Ultimately, the CFP committee must weigh two competing philosophies:

• Should the No. 1 team have the best résumé? This would favor Ohio State, whose unbeaten record and quality wins set them apart.
• Should the No. 1 team look like the best in the country? Oregon’s dominance and efficiency make them the obvious choice here.

The committee’s decision will shape not only the playoff seeding but also the broader narrative of the season. If Ohio State claims the top spot, it reaffirms the value of strength of schedule and gritty victories. If Oregon leapfrogs to No. 1, it signals a preference for dominance and the “eye test.”

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7. Beyond Rankings: What It Means for the Playoff

The No. 1 ranking carries significant implications for the CFP. The top seed faces the perceived weakest team in the semifinal, an advantage that can be the difference between advancing and falling short. For Ohio State and Oregon, the stakes are immense. The debate over who should be No. 1 isn’t just academic; it could determine who ultimately lifts the trophy.

8. The Wild Cards: Georgia and Michigan

While this discussion centers on Ohio State and Oregon, the looming presence of Georgia and Michigan complicates matters. Georgia, the two-time defending champion, has its own claim to the No. 1 spot. Michigan, despite the shadow of a sign-stealing scandal, remains unbeaten and will face Ohio State in a game that could decide the Big Ten.

For Oregon, the potential chaos in the Big Ten East might open a clearer path to No. 1. If Ohio State and Michigan deliver a classic showdown, the winner could vault to the top, leaving Oregon to battle for the No. 2 or No. 3 spot.

9. Conclusion: An Unsolvable Question

In the end, the debate over whether Ohio State or Oregon should be No. 1 may never be definitively resolved. Both teams are exceptional in their own ways, and the case for each is compelling. Ohio State embodies resilience and excellence against the toughest competition. Oregon dazzles with dominance and a style that screams championship-caliber.

Perhaps the best answer to this debate is one we’ll get on the field. With conference championships and the CFP looming, the true No. 1 team will have a chance to prove it where it matters most.

So, should Ohio State be No. 1 over Oregon? The question may be uncomfortable and unsolvable—but that’s precisely why college football is so exhilarating.