Are the Cincinnati Reds Trading Hunter Greene?
Could the Cincinnati Reds be looking to trade Hunter Greene? That’s the rumor du jour floating around the internet baseball world. The latest in a line of “rumors” comes from everyone’s favorite former Reds general manager, Jim Bowden.
This morning at The Athletic, he released a “Top 10 MLB Starters Most Likely to Be Traded” list, and Hunter Greene was at #3.
Bowden notes there have been “several reports” that the Reds plan to shop Greene this winter — though he hasn’t been able to confirm them — and even admits he doesn’t understand why the team would consider it.
Those comments tell us a lot. First, Bowden hasn’t confirmed any reports, which seem to be mostly speculation — including his own — based on the Reds’ pitching depth. The logic is that if all starters are healthy, the club might trade from strength to acquire a much-needed bat, since ownership’s budget likely limits free-agent spending. Even Bowden admits he can’t see why they’d move Greene now.
Two weeks ago, when president of baseball operations Nick Krall and general manager Brad Meador held their end-of-season media session, Krall was asked about trading Greene. As reported by The Cincinnati Enquirer, he replied:
> “I don’t want to speculate on anybody that’s going to get traded or not traded at this point,” Krall said. “We haven’t had any conversations with other clubs. I don’t know what the needs are out there. I don’t know what players are available, as well.”
That non-committal answer fueled speculation. It wasn’t a flat “no,” so writers and fans ran with it. Realistically, no player should ever be declared completely untouchable — but that doesn’t mean the team is trying to trade Greene. If a team like Oakland offered Nick Kurtz, Jacob Wilson, and Shea Langeliers for him, the Reds would listen — but that kind of offer will never happen.
Hunter Greene is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Since the start of 2024, he ranks 18th among starters in WAR according to FanGraphs. By Baseball Reference’s metric, he’s been even more valuable — 10.6 bWAR versus 6.6 fWAR, a 61% difference. Among pitchers with at least 150 innings over the past two seasons, only five have a lower ERA than Greene. Of the six pitchers right behind him, four have fewer than 200 innings.
Greene has made just 45 starts over the past two seasons — not ideal, but hardly unusual. Among the top 10 pitchers in ERA (min. 150 IP) over that span, only three have made 50 or more starts: Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, and Zack Wheeler. Even in the top 30, just half meet that threshold. Durability issues plague nearly every staff ace in MLB — not just Greene or the Reds.
Another key point — and why Bowden’s trade theory makes no sense — is Greene’s team-friendly contract. Despite elite-level production, he’ll make just $8.3 million next year, rising to $15.3 million in 2027 and $16.3 million in 2028. There’s also a $21 million team option for 2029 with a $2 million buyout.
For a small-market team, that’s a dream deal. Trading him would only make sense for an outrageous return, which almost certainly won’t happen.
Yes, the Reds might move some pitching this offseason to upgrade the lineup. But no one else on the staff combines Greene’s talent, value, and contract terms. Trading anyone else makes far more sense.
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