Tiger-Cats vs. Redblacks Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: Dreadful Defense Should Lead to Points
The Hamilton Tiger-Cats head to the capital to take on the Ottawa Redblacks, and we’re offering our top Tiger-Cats vs. Redblacks predictions based on the best CFL odds.
It’s been a rough start to the season for the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (0-3) who remain the only winless team in the East. Lucky for them, they take on the Ottawa Redblacks (1-1) this week, a team that just gave up 47 to the Montreal Alouettes.
While neither of these teams look like true contenders by the Grey Cup odds, the squads should provide an entertaining game Sunday at 7:30 p.m. ET (TSN/RDS, CFL+). Ottawa is a 1-point home favorite, but Bo Levi Mitchell remains a CFL Most Outstanding player odds candidate thanks to Hamilton’s explosive passing attack.
Tiger-Cats vs. Redblacks prediction
Over 51.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
What happens when you put two of the CFL’s worst defenses on the same field? Hopefully you get lots of points scored.
While the offenses for both Ottawa and Hamilton have flashed, betting the Over in this matchup is far more about how poor these defenses have been playing this season. The Tiger-Cats are allowing the most points per game in the CFL (33.7) and Ottawa isn’t far behind with the second-most allowed (33).
Offensively, Hamilton should be able to take advantage of Ottawa. It hasn’t been the fault of the offense that the Ti-Cats remain winless. They sit second in the league in yards per game (400.7). Mitchell clearly isn’t the same QB at 34 who won multiple Grey Cup MVPs, but he can certainly still sling it.
The former Calgary Stampeders triggerman is third in the league in passing yards (975) and one TD pass off being tied for the lead. Shemar Bridges hitting the ground running during his first season in Canada has helped him turn back the clock a bit.
The ex-Baltimore Raven leads the Tiger-Cats in receiving yards with 270, putting him fifth in the CFL. Canadian WR Kiondre Smith also looks like he may turn in his best season in Hamilton, with 208 yards through three games.
That’s without even mentioning Tim White, whose recorded over 1,200 yards in each of the last two seasons, and Steven Dunbar, who topped 1,000 yards for Hamilton in 2022. Playmakers surround Mitchell, including running back James Butler, although he may miss the game with a head injury.
Even if they’re without Butler, the way to beat Ottawa is through the air. The Redblacks are allowing the second-most passing yards per game in the CFL (339.5) and gave up 393 to Cody Fajardo last week.
Can Ottawa score enough?
The Redblacks’ offense has looked shaky with new QB Dru Brown at the helm. But it opened the season with back-to-back games against last year’s two Grey Cup teams, the Montreal Alouettes and Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
This should be a much easier game for Brown to get into a rhythm. Hamilton is allowing 286.7 passing yards per game, despite the opposition going to the ground to burn clock, and the second-highest QB rating (112.4).
So while Brown, the former Bombers backup, is a little inexperienced, this is a perfect tune-up game. The talent is around him to take advantage of Hamilton, too.
Former NFL WR Justin Hardy is coming off a 1,000-plus-yard season last year in the capital and is seventh in the league in receiving yards (254), even though he’s played fewer games than every other player in the top 19. Meanwhile, both Bralon Addison and Jaelon Acklin are trusted vets.
Maybe the most significant boon for the Redblacks in 2024, though, has been RB Ryquell Armstead. He’s looked like a potential All-Star during his first CFL season after several with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
His physical running style has earned him the nickname “Rock,” and he should be able to exact punishment on the Tiger-Cats’ front seven.
These odds imply a 52.61% probability the Over hits, and a $10 bet pays out $19.01.
Best odds: -111 via Betway
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Tiger-Cats vs. Redblacks first team to score
Tiger-Cats (-111)
This is a great value. Usually this market skews heavily to one team. But we’re getting good odds on the better offense to score first with these squads so evenly matched. Not only do the Tiger-Cats rack up more yards than the Redblacks, they score more points, too.
With Mitchell’s willingness to push the ball downfield, and four receivers capable of making plays, I wouldn’t be surprised if Hamilton scores on its opening drive. But all we need is points, and it doesn’t matter how the score comes, and Hamilton will get a better shot at making a long-range kick. Marc Liegghio is 3-for-4 kicking from 40-plus, while Ottawa hasn’t even put Lewis Ward into position to hit a 40-plus-yard kick.
Tiger-Cats vs. Redblacks odds
Tiger-Cats vs. Redblacks odds via Betway as of Friday at 1:20 p.m. ET.
| Teams | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Redblacks | -120 | -1 (-111) | Over: 51.5 (-111) |
| Tiger-Cats | +100 | +1 (-111) | Under: 51.5 (-111) |
You can’t argue with the spread for this game. It’s the two worst teams in the East, and the home team is a 1-point favorite in what’s essentially a pick’em. While I’m staying away from the spread because these two teams are so volatile, I would lean toward taking Hamilton +1. The Tiger-Cats have produced moments when their offense looks legit. However, they’re 0-3 against the spread this season and Ottawa is 1-1.
Unlike the spread, I’m trusting these defenses to crumble again, leading to the Over cashing. While it may seem somewhat high, the Tiger-Cats have allowed 32-plus points in every game this season, and the Redblacks gave up 47 just last week.
Hamilton can’t cover a spread, but it can hit an Over. The Tiger-Cats are 3-0 betting the Over this season.
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